In the framework of WG5 verification activities, statistical scores are produced on a seasonal basis over Common Verification Areas and over national domains. For the station based approach (point verification), a Common Verification Software is used for all operational COSMO deterministic models. On the other hand, the evaluation with fuzzy (neighborhood) spatial methods is performed with VAST software over common areas. The technical details and the specifications of the verification analysis, are available in the guidelines which are prepared on an annual basis by the WG5C.

Point-wise Verification

The preparation of Common Plots based on Feedback Files is performed with the MEC/FFV2 (Rfdbk) statistical framework and they can be viewed interactively in the links below:

The verification files that can be viewed through the links above, follow a naming protocol that is described in this document.

Fuzzy (neighborhood method) Verification

Fuzzy (spatial) verification (scores for precipitation forecasts are calculated over ComA-2 and ComA-3 for higher resolution operational deterministic models that cover the areas. The comparison is performed against the OPERA network radar composites. For this activity, VAST COSMO software is used that is based on Beth Ebert fuzzy verification IDL code.

On the menu, plots of ETS, FBI, FSS, POD and FAR scores are provided on a seasonal basis for two forecast days based on 00UTC forecast cycle.

EPS Verification

The statistical evaluation of the operational ensemble systems will become available from October 2024 onwards:

Verification documentation

 

Verification analysis based on point-wise verification prior to Aug 2021 (VERSUS and MEC-Rfdbk software derived), can be viewed through older-style plots.